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Ernesto’s impact on the opener
By Metzger | September 1, 2006
I’m sorry I’m a bit late on my match-ups and prediction, but I’ve been trying to wait out the forecasting of Ernesto in order to give a more accurate prediction of what I feel may happen.
First off, let’s take a look at the forecast. Accu-Weather.com is predicting heavy rain tonight into the day tomorrow. Their best guess is that the State College area will end up with around 4.5 inches of precipitation before Ernesto exits the area. Penn State has already taken a few precautions, cancelling Friday night’s Football Eve celebration and issuing a parking advisory for fans attending Saturday’s season opener. As for what we can expect come game time, Accu-Weather has told the Centre Daily Times that the heavy stuff should be gone by kickoff. Let’s hope so!
So how will the wet track change the outcome on Saturday? For starters, it’s going to make establishing a potent ground attack imperative. This favors the Nittany Lions. Even though he will be running behind an inexperienced line and will be without lead blocker BranDon Snow, Tony Hunt should be able to find some space in the 3-3-5 alignment that Akron uses. Another positive I see for the Lions is the effect that the weather may have on the passing game. While both quarterbacks need to throw the same wet ball and both receivers need to catch that same ball, I believe that Akron will need to rely on the pass much more than Penn State will. In addition, let’s not forget what we saw from Anthony Morelli when he was throwing 30 yard darts in the dismal conditions that presented themselves during the Blue/White game in April.
What I don’t like about this forecast is the potential it has to be an equalizer for the underdog. The wet track will most definitely negate some of the advantage that the Nittany Lions had with regards to athleticism and team speed on the outside. These conditions typically lead to an attack that is designed to go between the tackles, which I still feel that Penn State can take advantage of. I also know that with a wet ball comes the increased likelihood of turnovers. The one way that I see the Zips staying in this thing late is if Penn State allows them to by coughing it up. Look for the coaches to work with their ballhandlers on protecting a wet ball.
With all that being said, I really think the Lions win this one due to their depth during the second half. I look for the bigger and stronger Lion fronts to wear down the Zips on both sides of the ball. I also don’t expect to see much creativity from Penn State’s offensive game plan due to the weather conditions and the Fighting Irish looming a week from Saturday.
My Prediction: Penn State 31, Akron 13
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